A team can’t win a game unless they have the ball more than the other team does. So, being able to control the ball and not turning it over seems to be very crucial to winning football games.
However, there may not be any direct connection for football bettors when it comes to limiting turnovers and being successful ATS.
Looking at the turnover margin so far in the NFL this season, demonstrates that while taking care of the ball is important, it isn’t affecting a team’s ability to cover spreads.
Nevertheless, there may just be a secret winning formula when playing against teams who can’t protect the ball as opposed to those forcing the turnovers.
So far this season, the teams with the best turnover margin are the Patriots 4-4 or 50 percent ATS, Cardinals 5-2 or 71 percent ATS, Packers 4-3-1 or 57 percent ATS, Bills 4-4 or 57 percent ATS, and the Brown 4-1-2 or 80 percent ATS. These teams are all at least +7 in the turnover battle, which means that they are forcing turnovers at a much higher rate than receiving them.
Despite the extra possessions, these team also only combine to go 21-17-3 or 51 percent ATS on the season. The teams are both protecting the ball and forcing turnovers, but their ATS record just does not match up. This can be a combination of crucial mistakes during the course of a game, or just not being able to take advantage of the extra possession.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, bettors could be overlooking the golden goose this NFL season when they look to play against teams who have the worst turnover margin.
The bottom 5 teams are the Raiders 3-4 or 42 percent ATS, Eagles 4-3 or 57 percent ATS, Redskins 2-6 or 28 percent ATS, Jaguars 2-6 or 25 percent ATS, and the Jets 1-6-1 or 14 percent ATS. These teams are just plain horrible when it comes to protecting the ball and all have at least a -6 in the turnover margin with the Jets at a dismal -13.
Being able to take care of the football does not seem to be a high priority for these teams and their combined ATS record is 12-24-1 or an anemic 32 percent.
If football bettors would have blindly played against these teams at the start of the season, they would have been hitting at a 65 percent rate and laughing all the way to the bank.
IN the end, the recipe for success during the remainder of this year’s NFL season may just be to play against these horrible teams who suffer in the turnover margin.
With every trend, bettors can expect the odds-makers to make a change and try to prevent these trends to continue.
So, until football fans see a solid turnaround from any of these teams, they should continue to count that money.