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NFL week 5 Picks Against the Spread

2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions – BILLS +7 (-120)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)

2 UNIT = Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints – OVER 48 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

I mentioned in my Buccaneers/Steelers writeup last week that Mike Glennon is a much better quarterback than people give him credit for. I thought there was an underlying issue with Glennon when I heard the Bucs went and got Josh McCown. No, Tampa just made a stupid move, in my opinion. Glennon was coming off a season where he passed for 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his rookie campaign, why abandoning that for McCown always had me confused. Nevertheless, Glennon was back in the drivers seat last week and delivered on the road in Pittsburgh. He completed the game completing 21 of 42 passes with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Glennon looked like he’s been the starter all year. The Steelers’ defense isn’t what it used to be, but going into Pittsburgh and passing for over 300 yards is no small feat. The Buccaneers’ defense is still going to have their issues, though. Talent wise they are lacking. The Bucs are giving up 29.8 points per game, which is 2nd last only to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re also allowing 387.8 yards a game, 26th in the NFL, 28th against the pass. The Saints’ offense looked anaemic last week, I am not sure what they were doing in the first half. They haven’t completely clicked yet. We cashed the OVER in that one, but the Saints made it difficult on us. The Cowboys don’t have the best of defenses, on paper anyway, and the Buccaneers may be even worse. Are they going to look this awful two weeks in a row against two fairly bad defenses? At home, I don’t believe so. Even with their troubles, they are still 3rd with regards to yardage per game. The Saints’ defense has regressed since making giant leaps last year, but are now 29th in the NFL, allowing 27.5 points per game. I see Drew Brees having a big game today. He is due for it. There may be a backdoor cover chance, so I am going to lay off the points and just take the OVER 48.

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