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2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans – OVER 46.5 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
4 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers – PACKERS -7 (-114)
(Note: I’m risking 4.00 units to win 3.51 units)
A frustrating series of events for me last week. As a 1-2 week could have easily went 3-0. In the Lions/Bears game there was not a single moment in the game to blame, but one after the other rather. All the Lions had to do was hold on to the ball and not turn it over one of those two trips in the red zone and a field goal would have gave us a cover. Or, Jeremy Ross botching a punt return with seconds left in the 1st half hurt as well. Punches to the gut are part of this business, though, just have to accept it an move on to the next game. This week I am heading right back to a Lions game. Week 17 is particularly tricky. I wanted to have one or two more plays, but many of the games this week are essentially pointless for many teams. Some teams already have solidified a spot in the playoffs and others are looking forward to vacation. So I took a game with major implications on the line. The winner here secures the NFC North, with the Lions having a chance at a first-round bye and home playoff game if they can pull the win off. I don’t see them doing so this week. the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay since 1992. For a team that visits Lambeau every year that is pretty bad. After Aaron Rodgers threw up a dud against the Lions in their first meeting this season I had this one circled on the calendar. The Lions won that one 19-7 in week 3 and it was the worst performance of the year for Rodgers. It was after that game when Rogers went on that torrid tear. The Packers are quite phenomenal at home this season, they are 7-0, including a 26-21 victory over the Patriots. 26 points is actually the lowest total they were held to all year. In Green Bay the Packers have averaged 41.1 points per game. The Pack got over 30 points in every game except that Patriots game. Heck, even in the pre-season they went over 30 points in both games. The Lions have a beast of a defensive line and allow nothing on the ground, but I don’t see the Packers fooling around with the ground game. I look for Rodgers to air it out frequently throughout this game, taking advantage of what I think, has been an over achieving Detroit secondary. After the game he had last time against the Lions, Rodgers should be hungry to bounce back. The Lions offense on the other hand have been under achievers. On the road they’ve looked horrible, averaging only 15 points per game. I can see the Packers hitting the mid 30’s. The Lions will be without center, Dominic Raiola, this week after stomping on the ankle of a Bear last week. That forces the team to go with a rookie at center, a rather important position that is often overlooked. Certainly not good for a team that hasn’t won in a place since 1992, going up against a team that hasn’t lost in that same place all season long. The Lions are happy with their already clinched playoff spot. I am a Lions fan, but I don’t like them in this spot. Only one play for me this week, but I’ll be playing it for 4 units on the Packers.