Since we make our clients so much money betting on Football throughout the season, we find that it is helpful to add in beneficial advice and ideas that are frequently discussed and asked by our advisory board here. We look forward to servicing you for all your sports betting needs.
Quite a bit of commotion was made over the offseason with the notion that NFL officials were going to be calling games a lot closer with a special emphasis on defensive penalties.
These penalties included pass interference, defensive holding and illegal contact, which would make it even tougher for defenses to defend against the pass.
An already enormous amounts of penalties were called during the preseason for these types of infractions and the rate was doubled in comparison to previous years.
That caused an influx of bettors to line up at the window to place their bet on the over, feeling that these penalties would create more opportunities for the offenses to put more points on the board.
But as the season has progressed, the OVERS are 64-56, or 53 percent ATS, which is not a big difference to previous years.
Sure, the new penalties are still being called at a higher rate, but not nearly as high as they were during the preseason. That’s caused many football bettors to rethink their betting strategies.
As players are adjusting to the rule changes, so are the odds-makers, lowering totals as they try to lure unsuspecting bettors.
And while some teams that like the Browns, Jaguars and Colts, have seen every one of their games go to the over, many others have seen the opposite.
The Colts are already a high-powered offensive team who play indoors and never have to worry about a weather delay, while the Browns and Jags are both teams who are rebuilding and have defenses that are allowing a high amount of points, forcing their offense to throw the ball a lot, often resulting big yardage plays that set up a fair number of scoring opportunities.
Bettors should bet on the OVER with teams that air the ball out, because it puts the refs in a position where they are going to be paying special attention to the new rule changes.
Consequently, teams that have been able to adapt to the rule changes and have not seen one of their games hit the OVER are the Bills, Bengals and Cardinals. All of these teams play top-notch defense and with the special emphasis on defensive penalties, the coaches and players have adapted to the rule changes and have not allowed it to slow their game down.
The refs in these games have kept their flags in their pockets and bettors have not seen one of these game cash on the OVER.
Bettors need to keep in mind that Vegas constantly adjusts the lines accordingly, but so far the sample size is not large enough for bettors to make a decision based solely on the new rule changes.
However, with the OVERS only hitting at just over 50 percent, football bettors would still be losing the juice they were to bet the OVER bases solely on tighter defensive penalty calls.