Bye weeks are so important for NFL teams, because they allow key players to get the extra rest they need, and get those that are hurt the time they need to recover.
Bye weeks also give coaches extra time to plan for certain opponents, allowing their team to be better prepared, which could give them the extra edge in grabbing an unexpected victory.
This year, NFL teams are 3-4-1 ATS after a bye week, so it’s prompted us to take a look at when it is best to wager on a particular team coming off a bye week.
In 2014, NFL teams coming off a bye week and playing at home are 2-1 ATS. One team has covered have as +7 favorite and on as an underdog by +7 points. These teams used the extra time to heal and prepare and came away victors.
And although different coming in as a fav or dog, both teams have on key similarity — the number being set at 7.
That’s a key number for those wanting to wager on football games with a home team coming off a bye this season.
Other teams that have come off a bye week while playing on the road are only 1-3 ATS this season, with the lone favorite also being the only team to actually cover the spread.
That’s pretty surprising, considering road teams usually have a tough time covering. But the extra week to not only prepare, but also rest, appears to have worked in their favor.
The other three teams who lost were all on the road and were unsuccessful in covering the spread.
Additionally, two of the teams were the road underdogs and the other was a road favorite.
That’s an important factor, demonstrating that teams coming off a bye are more likely to cover ATS when they are at home as opposed to covering when they are on the road.
It’s clear by the numbers that bye weeks serve a purpose in the NFL. Teams are a very well-oiled machine, who just like a classic car, still need a tune up every once in a while.
The bye weeks give the coaches the extra time needed to prepare and we can see that our money is going to continue to be placed on teams who are home after their bye week as this has proved to be the successful route to take.